All eyes on key U.S. inflation data

Economists expect headline inflation to rise by 0.3% month over month, while core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, is forecast to increase by 0.2%. Consumer prices rose by 0.6% in September. Due to last year's federal government shutdown, comparable data for October 2025 is unavailable, preventing the publication of annual inflation rates for both headline and core CPI this month.

The inflation report is among the most closely watched economic releases ahead of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) December interest rate decision. Changes in energy, food, and service prices will provide important signals about whether inflationary pressures are persisting. A higher-than-expected reading could strengthen expectations of an interest rate hike, supporting the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields. More moderate price increases, however, could encourage positive momentum in gold and equity markets.