Commerzbank warns of further lira depreciation
German banking giant Commerzbank warned that the current pace of nominal depreciation in the Turkish lira is insufficient to bring the currency closer to its fair value.
The bank's economist, Tatha Ghose, noted that the lira has depreciated at an annualized rate of approximately 20% in recent months, arguing that this pace has not eliminated its real appreciation. Ghose emphasized that current exchange rate movements do not rule out the risk of further depreciation in the period ahead.
Pointing to inflation in Türkiye remaining in the 30%–35% range, Ghose explained that a 20% annual decline in the nominal exchange rate means the Turkish lira continues to appreciate in real terms. Although he has not observed a significant acceleration in the pace of depreciation in recent days, the economist maintained that the lira remains on a steady and relatively rapid depreciation trend.
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