ECB sees resilience to energy shock
The European Central Bank said in an analysis published on October 21 that the eurozone economy had proved more resilient than expected to the 2026 energy price shock.
ECB economists Óscar Arce, Gerrit Koester and Beatrice Pierluigi estimated that the region's dependence on oil had fallen by approximately half compared with the early 1990s. Renewable and nuclear energy production, fiscal support and artificial intelligence investment helped sustain economic activity. The estimated fiscal expansion for 2026 increased from 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points of GDP compared with projections made in December 2025.
The economists highlighted AI-related trade and investment as important sources of support for technology equipment exports and industrial activity. The forecast for global trade growth in 2026 also increased from 2% to 4.7%. However, they warned that fiscal support could prove temporary and that weaker AI investment could undermine future growth. The assessment suggests that the eurozone has become structurally more resilient to energy shocks, although it does not represent a new ECB interest rate decision or monetary policy change.
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