Market inflation expectations rise
The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) released the results of its Market Participants Survey for November 2026.
According to the survey, the market's year-end inflation expectation for 2026 increased from 29.63% to 30.04%, exceeding the CBRT's latest forecast of 29.5%. Inflation expectations for the next 12 months rose from 23.89% to 24.04%, while the 24-month-ahead expectation increased from 17.94% to 18.02%. The figures indicated a modest upward revision in market participants' short- and medium-term inflation forecasts.
The survey showed that the expected policy rate for the December Monetary Policy Committee meeting stood at 35%, indicating that market participants anticipate a 100-basis-point interest rate cut. The year-end USD/TRY exchange rate forecast increased from 51.55 to 51.61, while the 12-month-ahead forecast rose from 59.26 to 60.77. Meanwhile, economic growth projections remained unchanged. Participants expect the Turkish economy to expand by 2.9% in 2026 and 3.9% in 2027.