Six surveys reveal key inflation forecasts ahead of official data
Results from six separate surveys have been released ahead of the October inflation data scheduled to be announced by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) on Tuesday, November 3.
Monthly inflation expectations ranged from 2.11% to 2.42% across surveys conducted by AA Finans, CNBC-e, Bloomberg HT, ForInvest, Matriks Haber, and the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT). AA Finans projected a monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase of 2.20%, while CNBC-e forecast 2.30% and Bloomberg HT estimated 2.42%. Both ForInvest and Matriks projected 2.40%, while the CBRT Market Participants Survey indicated an expectation of 2.11%. Annual inflation forecasts ranged from 29.28% to 29.59%.
Following September's inflation readings of 1.84% month over month and 29.73% year over year, annual inflation is expected to decline slightly in October. Year-end inflation expectations across the surveys are largely concentrated between 29.50% and 29.70%. Economists are highlighting the impact of food prices, energy costs, rent increases, and seasonal price adjustments on inflation. The official figures, scheduled for release by TÜİK at 10:00 a.m. Türkiye time on November 3, will be closely monitored for their implications for CBRT interest rate policy and the year-end inflation outlook.
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