Goldman Sachs: Fuel supply to remain tight through 2027

A team of analysts, including Filippo Cuscito and Daan Struyven, stated that refineries moving to complete previously postponed maintenance work could constrain production and exports. The bank noted that planned global refinery maintenance activity had declined by 1.7 million barrels per day year over year, partly due to maintenance deferrals in the United States.

According to Goldman Sachs, increased refinery maintenance, particularly in India and South Korea, could reduce diesel and jet fuel exports in the second quarter of 2027. Low fuel inventories in major consumption centers are leaving markets vulnerable to further supply disruptions. The slow recovery in refined product exports from the Persian Gulf is also supporting prices, while the bank emphasized that alternative transportation methods used for crude oil are more difficult to implement for refined fuels.