Goldman Sachs warns oil shipping costs have surged sevenfold

According to the bank's analysis, average crude oil shipping costs have risen from $3 to more than $20 per barrel. War-related risks in the Strait of Hormuz have added $7 per barrel to transportation costs, while higher fuel expenses and ship-to-ship oil transfers have each contributed an additional $4 per barrel. Goldman Sachs warned that elevated freight rates could persist due to geopolitical risks and logistical disruptions.

The bank emphasized that rising transportation costs pose upside risks to Brent crude prices. Approximately one-sixth of the tankers in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman are reportedly being used for daily ship-to-ship oil transfers, while higher shipping costs could encourage refiners to turn to suppliers located closer to their facilities. Although Goldman Sachs' base-case forecast projects Brent crude falling to $90 per barrel by the end of 2026, prolonged conflicts, attacks on energy infrastructure, and persistent risk premiums could make that outlook more difficult to achieve.