HSBC expects 200 basis points of TCMB rate cuts
HSBC expects the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (TCMB) to cut its policy rate by a total of 200 basis points by the end of the year.
The bank’s strategists Ali Çakıroğlu, Shubham Sharma and Tolga Ediz said markets are already pricing in around 150 basis points of easing by year-end. According to HSBC, the key issue for markets will be the extent to which the rate-cutting cycle continues into 2027.
The report said markets are pricing in around 300 basis points of rate cuts over the entire easing cycle, a relatively limited amount compared with previous cutting cycles. Geopolitical risks and persistently high global interest rates were cited among the reasons for this cautious pricing. HSBC expects short-term rates to benefit the most if the monetary easing cycle resumes.
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