ING expects CBRT rate cut in December

ING Türkiye Chief Economist Muhammet Mercan said CBRT Governor Fatih Karahan's emphasis on improvements in underlying inflation trends supports expectations of another 100-basis-point rate cut. Despite the CBRT raising its year-end 2027 inflation forecast from 15% to 21%, declining underlying inflation indicators were seen as creating room for gradual monetary policy easing.

ING highlighted that the multivariate trend inflation indicator remains approximately 6 percentage points below annual inflation. According to the bank, this suggests that the effects of tight monetary policy on domestic demand, inflation expectations, and pricing behavior are becoming more evident. Although risks stemming from energy and food prices persist, annual inflation is expected to converge toward its underlying trend as supply-side pressures ease. ING forecasts that the CBRT will lower its policy rate from 36% to 35% in December.