Morgan Stanley warns of fuel shortages through 2027
Morgan Stanley warned that supply shortages in the global fuel market could persist until mid-2027, even if war-related disruptions ease.
According to the bank's analysis, a buildup of postponed refinery maintenance is expected to weigh on global fuel production. Analysts including Martijn Rats and Charlotte Firkins forecast that planned refinery shutdowns will increase by 3.4 million barrels per day through the second quarter of 2027, approximately 2.5 times normal levels.
Conflicts in the Middle East and attacks on energy infrastructure by Russia and Ukraine are causing significant supply disruptions, particularly in the diesel market. Diesel prices rising faster than crude oil prices are adding pressure to transportation, industrial, and heating costs. Morgan Stanley noted that refiners have postponed maintenance to take advantage of elevated profit margins, but warned that this approach is unsustainable. The bank does not expect a significant recovery in refinery output even in the second quarter of 2027.
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