NEWS· 1 min read
CBRT raises inflation forecasts
The CBRT increased its average oil price assumption for 2026 from $87.80 to $97.20 per barrel, while the 2027 projection was raised from $76.40 to $86.70. The food inflation forecast for 2026 was also revised upward from 28.5% to 31.3%. Karahan stated that rising energy prices have slowed the disinflation process, although improvements in underlying inflation trends continue. Emphasizing that the decline in inflation expectations has been more limited than anticipated, Karahan clarified that the upward forecast revisions do not signal monetary policy easing and that the central bank will maintain its tight monetary policy stance.
The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) revised its year-end inflation forecasts upward in its fourth and final Inflation Report of 2026.
CBRT Governor Fatih Karahan announced that the 2026 year-end inflation forecast was raised from 28% to 29.5%, while the 2027 forecast increased from 15% to 21%. Additionally, the intermediate inflation target for 2027 was raised from 15% to 21%, and the 2028 target was revised upward from 9% to 13.5%. Karahan cited geopolitical developments, rising energy prices, and changes in food inflation expectations as the main factors behind the revisions.