Year-end inflation and dollar forecasts updated
As the end of the year approaches, inflation and USD/TRY exchange rate expectations have returned to the spotlight in Türkiye's economy.
Markets are closely monitoring how far inflation could decline by year-end and how the Turkish lira may perform against the U.S. dollar. Upcoming inflation data, monetary policy decisions by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT), and developments in global financial markets will play a key role in shaping year-end expectations.
According to a survey conducted by Matriks Haber with the participation of 29 banks and brokerage firms, monthly inflation in October is expected to reach 2.40%, while annual inflation is forecast at 29.54%. Economists maintained their year-end 2026 inflation forecast at 29.50%, while lowering their USD/TRY exchange rate projection from 51.80 in the previous survey to 51.60. The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) is scheduled to release October inflation data on Tuesday, November 3, at 10:00 a.m. Türkiye time.
The survey also showed that the year-end 2027 inflation forecast declined from 23.50% to 23.25%, while the USD/TRY projection for the same period increased to 61.90. Economists' 12-month-ahead annual inflation expectation stood at 24.15%, with the USD/TRY exchange rate forecast at 60.12. These results indicate downward revisions to near-term exchange rate expectations, alongside higher dollar projections for 2027.
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